Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks – July 4

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Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks – July 4

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Washington Nationals and C.J. Abrams on Friday at 11:05 a.m. ET, at Nationals Park. For this matchup, the Nationals are listed as -104 moneyline underdogs, while the Red Sox are the favorites at -115. Boston is favored by 1.5 runs, with odds of +144. The over/under for the game is set at 8 runs, with -115 odds to go over and -105 odds on the under.

Here’s everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Nationals game, covering the run line, moneyline, and total, plus expert picks.

Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, July 4, 2025, at 11:05 a.m. ET

Where: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

How to watch on TV: MLB Network, MASN, and NESN

Betting Odds

Favorite	Moneyline	Underdog	Moneyline	Total	Over Odds	Under Odds	Run Line Favorite	Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Red Sox	-115	Nationals	-104	8	-115	-105	-1.5	+144	-174

Prediction

Score Prediction: Nationals 6, Red Sox 5

Total Prediction: Over 8 runs

Win Probabilities: Red Sox 50%, Nationals 50%

Red Sox Betting Insights

This season, the Red Sox have been favored 52 times and won 26 of those games, giving them a win rate of 50%. When favored by -115 or more, their record is 25-23, translating to a 52 777 jili casino login download.1% win rate. The implied probability of a win for the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 53.5%.

The Nationals have been underdogs in 71 games this season, securing 33 wins, which translates to a 46.5% success rate. Washington has achieved victory 31 times when set as an underdog of at least -104 on the moneyline, resulting in an implied probability of 51% according to sportsbooks.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

The Red Sox hold a 1-4 record from their last 10 matchups when favored on the moneyline. In those games, they and their opponents combined to exceed the run total six times out of ten. Against the spread, the Red Sox have gone 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Recent Red Sox Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	3-7
Runs Per Game	5.4
Home Runs	13
ERA	4.86
K/9	8.1

Red Sox Player Insights

Jarren Duran has 21 doubles, nine triples, six home runs, and 26 walks while batting .253. He ranks 183rd in homers and 82nd in RBI among all hitters in the majors. jl casino Notably, Duran enters this matchup with a hitting streak of four games, batting .222 with a double, a triple, a home run, four walks, and an RBI over his last five games.

Wilyer Abreu leads the team with 17 home runs and 48 RBIs, boasting a .261 batting average. Abreu is currently 22nd in home runs and 39th in RBIs league-wide. He has hit at least one in three consecutive games and is batting .350 with a double, four home runs, a walk, and 12 RBIs over his last five outings.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a batting average of .254, with 17 doubles, two triples, nine home runs, and 15 walks. Trevor Story, meanwhile, is hitting .244, amassing 11 doubles, 12 home runs, and 16 walks. He has recorded at least one hit in five straight games and is batting .474 with four doubles, a home run, two walks, and six RBIs in his last five games.

Nationals Recent Betting Performance

As underdogs in their last 10 matchups, the Nationals hold a record of 4-5. Over the same period, on games with totals set, the Nationals and their opponents have hit the over 8 times out of 10. Additionally, they are 7-3-0 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Recent Nationals Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	6.6
Home Runs	7
ERA	6. lbc number of days delivery65
K/9	7.3

Nationals Player Insights

James Wood leads the Nationals with 23 home runs and 67 RBIs, also achieving a team-high batting average of .294. phspin com log in He stands sixth in both home runs and RBIs among MLB hitters. Wood enters this game with a six-game hitting streak, and during his last 10 games, he’s batting .417 with two home runs, 11 walks, and 10 RBIs.

C.J. Abrams has 18 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs, and 23 walks, hitting .286 overall. He ranks 59th in home runs and 135th in RBIs among MLB players. Luis Garcia follows with 19 doubles, seven home runs, and 16 walks, with a batting average of .272.

Team Props

Player	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Wilyer Abreu	0.5 (-190)	1.5 (+115)	–	0.5 (+155)
Roman Anthony	0.5 (-210)	1. jl7 casino login registration5 (+120)	–	0.5 (+175)
Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5 (-210)	1.5 (+130)	–	0.5 (+185)
Abraham Toro	0.5 (-220)	1.5 (+130)	–	0.5 (+185)
Jarren Duran	1.5 (+195)	1.5 (+100)	–	0.5 (+190)

What do you think will be the outcome of the Red Sox vs. Nationals match?

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